1917 Artillery at SimpsonLtd

[siegersallee]

I posted this on the other site and there was very little discussion about it. I was surprised and some what disappointed by that. I was sure that such an Artillery would get lots of comments and discussion.

Here is my post from the other forum:

Well, here is the link: Black 9 Arty at SimpsonLtd.

I have looked around at prices of sold Artys on Legacy and Pre98 over the past couple of years and I sort of agree with George.

I think that a 1917 DWM all matching including the magazine and grips would be in the 4k range. (I am assuming Excellent condition: 98%).

Add in a matching stock and same year brown holster that is in good condition with an Imperial tool and cleaning rod, 6K.
Add in a black 9 on the matching grips, 7K.
Add in retailer profit, 9-10K.

I don't think this is a good deal; but, I don't see it as unreasonable.
In 5 years I'll bet that the value will have increased by 5K.

Decent all matching Artillery Lugers with all the matching goodies are not often available.

Just my 0.00002K worth...

Richard

[siegersallee]

Today early, I posted this at the other forum:

The pistol sold within the first hour of SimpsonLTD opening today. The pistol sat Sunday and Monday because they were not open.

[Arizona Slim]

Thanks for the post Richard, looks like your estimate of the value of that beautiful Artillery was right on the money.

Lon

[DonVoigt]

Originally Posted by Arizona Slim

Thanks for the post Richard, looks like your estimate of the value of that beautiful Artillery was right on the money.

Lon

Of course it was, he knew the asking price!

Still looks overpriced to me, S'allee took retail prices and then added another retail mark up to them.

Not to say that Simpson did not sell it for that, just maybe that they are high pricers and get it. Good for them! not for buyers. JMHO.

[alvin]

Trust me, if it does not sell, it's not due to that $10K price tag. It's due to the sanded area on the grip. Unbelievable amount of collectors could pay $10K on a high-end pistol, no problem at all, but they are picky on condition. And for that, how much discount should be given for its final sale,,,, is probably not a linear function.

[siegersallee]

Of course it was, he knew the asking price!

Still looks overpriced to me, S'allee took retail prices and then added another retail mark up to them.

My purpose was to bring clarity to the pricing and determine if the pricing was "reasonable".
There were some who stated to me that the asking price was ridiculously high and so I wanted to see if that opinion was backed up by an analysis or just a gut-knee-jerk reaction.
My conclusion is that asking price was reasonable but, certainly not a "deal".
I was in no way trying to predict the sale price or persuade others to my opinion. I just state facts; though, of course, facts are sometimes relative as I will argue below.


My conclusion was based upon the following points:

The price at which something sells is an indication of its "value" and the actualized price becomes a point of comparison (a comp) for future sales if *publicly* known.

Though you may say that what any "given collector" will pay is NOT necessarily the "value", the sale, if pubic, becomes a statistic in future valuations and as such is viewed as the "value" of the item.

Many of the artillery's that I used as comps were sold up to 3 years ago.
Given that WWI Lugers are quite "hot" right now, I think that helps to explain why this particular Artillery came on to the public market at this time.

Actually, Simpson's profit margin may be as high as 30%. I conservatively factored in around 20%.

Since, the Luger sold very quickly, I tend to think the price and value of that Luger were closely aligned to the mind of a collector who seeks out only the best. This sale becomes a statistic for future valuations for Artillerys in this condition with these extras.

You seem to me to be saying that "actualized" retail prices do not represent value. I hope you understand that the price realized, as I pointed out above, is the "value" of the item at the time of the sale.

I understand that you think it was over-priced; however you offer nothing to substantiate your opinion.
As a serious collector of top condition Lugers, based upon my analysis, I believe the price was on the high end of the value-range but, not unreasonable given the offering. I myself was very seriously considered making the purchase but, was dissuaded by the keeper of the purse owning to my purchases at RIA in April.

Just as an aside, I have noted that many collectors consider today's prices as outrageously high. I have my theories on why this is. I came into this hobby about 4 years ago and I have become used to these prices as the market has changed substantially over the years. One reason for this, with respect to WWI Lugers, is that top-condition, collectible WWI Lugers are seldom offered for public sale. Thus when they are, they command top dollar. For collectors who have extensive networks of other collectors, they operate in a private market where prices are calculated by a different set of rules.

You can argue that Pre98 and Legacy are skewed toward the high side and you will find lots of folks on this board agree. But, these are "retailers" and the Artillery was offered on a "retail" site, the sale was public; therefore, the comps to determine value have to be made based upon the public market.

The valuation determination in the retail market and the asking price in a private collector-to-collector sale *may* certainly not be the same. But, I guarantee you, that even in private sale, the seller will use retail sales to determine price but *may* scale back their "ask"owing to the lower overhead of the private market and other factors that would have no bearing in a public market.

I believe that in all sales, the valuation of an item is a product of market, the desirability of an item, a buyer's means, and the buyer's perception of the item. Of course, there are more factors but these make the point.

Given all of these points, the price actualized is the value of this Artillery. Though, I can understand that some would dispute this.

Again, this is my 0.02USD opinion based upon my understanding of economics. I know that I may have missed something and am willing to be corrected.

Richard.

[alvin]

There is a difference between setting up a collection, and having a well established collection and slowly expanding it here or there.

Don could write book on certain C&R rifles, obviously belong to latter type. Searching for bargain is very natural. I have not written anything, even I am searching for bargains. Very normal. If you have a great pistol for sale, you don't have to sell to Don, he's not the only buyer on the market Market is big.

[Edward Tinker]

You know how much Simpson's charges for consignment?

10% is what I have been told

I am sure they make money here and there - they buy pieces, but like to get consignments - sometimes they sell in a day or hours and sometimes they sit there literally for years.

Disappointed in such little response on the 'other site' - well that happens. I will write something up and 40 people will have read it and not responded. So, I delete it, figure its not important enough for others if they read it and don't say anything.

But the vast majority of folks read and never, ever write while others comment a lot. Hopefully the reader can discern when someone is full of hot air.

I personally feel that if folks don't contribute they shouldn't be a member pictures, discussion, comments...

[Edward Tinker]

You seem to me to be saying that "actualized" retail prices do not represent value. I hope you understand that the price realized, as I pointed out above, is the "value" of the item at the time of the sale.

Sorry, I don't agree. I assume you are an engineer for a living or the type?

There are many folks who have more money than god gave sense, and they will buy 'pretty' and from known names. Simpson and other well known dealers can get prices that you and I can't. So, value at the time is for RETAIL.

If you go to sell, you'll find that many times guns are not as liquid as you'd like, it might take 2 hrs to sell or 2 years, again depending on who is looking that day and how much time has passed (although I have seen a rare Simson sell at Rock Island for 3k and a year later double in 'value'; but have seen one sell for $5k and it not sell next time for $3k).

I sold a bolt for a rifle recently, I had lowered the price and then a friend told me to sell the bolt by itself without the receiver (no FFL involved) and doubled my asking price. The market can be very weird........

[alvin]

Some items on Simpson have attractive price. For example, this one:

http://www.simpsonltd.com/product_in...ducts_id=40946

Although it's re-oiled, but this price is very good. Standalone Large Ring Hammer stock in this shape does not come easy at this price. Takes years to wait one.

Hopefully, Jack bought it. It's the appropriate correct stock for Flatside C96. Definitely not easy to come.

So, no wonder it sells at lighting speed..

[DonVoigt]

Originally Posted by alvin

Some items on Simpson have attractive price. For example, this one:

http://www.simpsonltd.com/product_in...ducts_id=40946

Although it's re-oiled, but this price is very good. Standalone Large Ring Hammer stock in this shape does not come easy at this price. Takes years to wait one.

Hopefully, Jack bought it. It's the appropriate correct stock for Flatside C96. Definitely not easy to come.

So, no wonder it sells at lighting speed..

Alvin,
I'm curious what makes this correct for a flatside 1896?

Oh, and I think it is over priced too- given the reproduction
leather rig.

[alvin]

Originally Posted by DonVoigt

Alvin,
I'm curious what makes this correct for a flatside 1896?

Oh, and I think it is over priced too- given the reproduction
leather rig.

Well, buyer could resell that repro leather on ebay to get $80 back. That's not an issue. With or without this repro frog leather, the price is good.

Why?

This stock s/n is 28403 -- 5-digit full s/n stock -- buttstocks for conehammer, Large Ring hammer, and early small ring hammer has full s/n on the stock. All later stocks have 3-digit partial s/n.

All features on this stock is correct for s/n 28403's supposed to be. Mauser made a million C96s but only three pistols could have #28403 -- a flatside, a Red 9, and a Schnellfeuer. Red 9's stock and Schnellfeuer's stock are different from this one. Combine those together, it's the stock from flatside #28403.

Why it worth the money... Due to stock is a hallow wood structure, it's fragile. Fewer stocks survived than guns. Even some excellent C96s do not have stock. Large Ring Hammer's stock (all Mauser made flatside had large ring hammer) usually has chip on lid due to the cutout on the lid to fit the larger hammer. A genuine Mauser stock for large ring hammer without chip nor crack is not easy to find.

But,,, if spending almost $900, this stock will still not matching the gun in hand, right? -- No. It won't. But that's the best owner can do if he/she cares to find a mismatching but correct stock for the gun. It's much better than a repro stock, especially when the gun is in nice shape -- people usually don't want to put a repro stock on a nice original gun. Repro stocks are for guns in lower condition.

Large ring hammer stock in excellent condition went over $1700 in auction. Of course, that's auction house sale and item condition was better. But that reflects the demand on the market. This one is about 50% of that sold price.

Hate that leather? sell it. It should not be there to begin with. I don't know why previous owner want to put a repro WWI style leather on a flatside stock.. that's wrong anyway. And new owner could fix that problem, sell the leather and lower the cost. Other players could have correct use of it -- put it on a wartime stock.

[DonVoigt]

S'allee,

Your analysis is correct; but, the bottom line is it is impossible to name a "market" price on any item, as IMO, all are sufficiently different to each other so as not to be comparable.

I quit giving "values" on Japanese rifles some years ago, no one was ever "happy" with the number, too high or too low, and I am always wrong or too stupid to know what value is!

After re-reading your tome, I conclude that we agree on this piece and its price, as you say:

"I understand that you think it was over-priced; however you offer nothing to substantiate your opinion.
As a serious collector of top condition Lugers, based upon my analysis, I believe the price was on the high end of the value-range but, not unreasonable given the offering. "

I think it is "over priced" based on watching the market; you think it is on the "high end" of value based on your analysis- what is the difference???

Ed,
sums it up quite well, some folks have more money than sense.
I have paid too much for a couple items that I "needed", and thus have skewed the market to the high side(and infrequently to the low side) for years.

Since all this discussion is only based on opinion, it falls into the interesting category for me; just to see and hear different view points.

And yes, I'm probably one of the ones who thinks every thing is now "over priced", since I've been buying and selling arms for
54 years.

[sheepherder]

Originally Posted by siegersallee

I posted this on the other site and there was very little discussion about it. I was surprised and some what disappointed by that. I was sure that such an Artillery would get lots of comments and discussion.

By "other site" we assume you mean Still's.

I'm a member there (as well as many other sites) and am obviously interested in 'artillery' pistols [coff, coff] but have only about a hundred posts there. There's just too many niche sub-forums. Forty, if you discount the site sub-forums; compared with 20 here. I'll follow a link here that sounds interesting, or I'll look for members who are banned here but have many interesting, provocative, and thoughtful threads/posts over there. I'm not nailed to a certain sub-class or variation of Luger; I like the broad view that is more prevalent here.

Still's is where you go if you know what you have. Jan has a sub-forum devoted to it. If you're unsure, or new, or just want to know what that is in your grandmother's attic trunk, then this is the better place to inquire.

I think most members of Still's forum are like me: They read the sub-forums that interest them. Here you get a much broader view. There's only one or two sub-forums here that I don't browse through. At Still's, I probably ignore 34 of the 40. It's just too specialized. Great for the collector who knows what he has and wants to know who Inspector 34 was, what he did, his wife & dogs name, but not much there to interest me.

Here, you get a wide range of armchair experts who are all sure that their beliefs are the correct ones. And, due to the laws of chance, sometimes they are.

************************************************

I agree with Ed's comment on silent members. There are hundreds of zero-post members here [possibly thousands]. There's people here who have albums but no posts. WTF??? If they haven't commented in six months or a year, delete them.

[Sieger]

Siegesalle (note Berliner spelling),

Something is worth what it sells for, in more than a limited since.

Also, with this or any other merchant, everyone should feel free to offer a lower amount if they feel the asking price is too high.

Yes, everyone is out to make a buck.

I have bought from this merchant before with satisfaction and I feel he is an honest guy, among many that are not so honest. Besides, he does have an inspection and return policy.

My .02.


Sieger

[wlyon]

Buyer beware regardless of whom is selling. A totally honest dealer is next to impossible to find. Bill

[siegersallee]

Gosh, this is great! This is exactly what I am talking about: some interesting and lively discussion.
I really like it when folks have, and express opinions, even when they don't agree with mine.
That's how we can grow our ways of thinking and gain knowledge.

Let me respond to a couple of items:

I assume you are an engineer for a living or the type?

Yes, I am a Software Engineer. I also consider myself a bit of an amateur Military Historian with emphasis on the First World War.

So, value at the time is for RETAIL.

Yes, exactly, my point! In the retail market, the public market, previous sales
are comps; and, based upon the comps, I believe the price of the Artillery in question was reasonable.
Since the luger sold quickly and I am sure the asking price was close to the actualized price, the asking price will be used in the future as a comp and influence the price of a future Artillery sale. Therefore, the price at which the Artillery in question sold is its valuation *today*.

By "other site" we assume you mean Still's.

Yes, I read the expression "other site" in another post and thought it reflected some sort of ill-will between the
two sites and that by using its official name I would summon evil spirits. So, I wanted to comply with what I perceived as an unwritten rule and used it.
If there is no enmity or evil spirits associated with it , then I guess I can just say "The Jan C. Still board".

Siegesalle (note Berliner spelling)

Yes, there is a major boulevard in Berlin called the Siegesallee, the avenue of victory. It leads to the Brandenburg gate. My "nom de plume" and username, siegersallee, has absolutely nothing to do with the Siegesallee. Siegersallee is both a last name (not mine) and the "path/road of the victor": from a Nordic saga. At least that's what my grand-father told me and I choose to believe.
Though I must confess, I have not been able to verify the Nordic sage part.

To those who feel the 1917 Artillery at SimpsonLtd is over-priced, please provide the reasons for your conclusion. Is it just a gut reaction?
I have provided my analysis. Quid Pro Quo.

[Sieger]

Originally Posted by siegersallee

To those who feel the 1917 Artillery at SimpsonLtd is over-priced, please provide the reasons for your conclusion. Is it just a gut reaction?
I have provided my analysis. Quid Pro Quo.

Hi,

Regarding the price issue, for me, at least, a Luger isn't a true collectible unless it has a mint bore.

I know that many collectors don't agree with me, but you did ask the question.


Sieger

[alvin]

Originally Posted by Sieger

unless it has a mint bore

Probably for Artillery Luger, requiring that is not too luxury. Not sure Luger's situation, but many Red 9 Mauser come with mint bore. When many collectible samples of a specific variation have mint bore, requiring a mint bore on that variation is not unrealistic. Especially when considerable amount of $$ is paid.

So, return to the bottom of this, it is still related with how hard it comes, and its relative position in the group of the same variation (top, upper, middle, lower),,, and, on collectors side -- current collection structure, current financial situation, etc. There are many non-linear factors. So, again and again, we saw top pistols go crazy in auctions, that's typical non-linear behavior.

[sheepherder]

BTW, there is another factor in collecting, whether guns or anything with a 'serial'.

There are those who collect only certain serials. True! Rich person of course, but with Lugers, there is more chance of getting great shape serialized item than with say a motorcycle.

Back in 1998, I owned a rare Harley-Davidson motorcycle. I knew it was rare and collectible so I advertised it in Hemmings. I got a half-dozen calls from that ad, one guy wanted rare color combination, but weirdest was guy wanting certain serial number. I was wary, but he rattled off the number he was looking for, and mine was not it. He went on to explain that he collected one of each model Harley but only with that serial number...Weird, but true collectors are weird...

(He gave me his name, and it wasn't Jay Leno)...