Help with value. - Page 2

4 Scale · 11-24-2017, 10:53 PM

A Luger that cost $200 in 1975 and is worth say $1,800 today has appreciated at an annual rate of about 5-6%. Inflation has averaged about 3.8% per year during that time.

Over time stocks tend to be much better investments but are relatively more volatile, as anyone who was long in the market in 1928 or 2008 can attest.

Bill if you can tell me the date of that ad for the $49.85 Luger, I'll take a guess at value today and compute an appreciation rate.

I've played with Luger appreciation rates a few different ways, and my best guess is that over time they appreciate at a couple percent above inflation. That means IMO they are in fact a type of investment, albeit one that seems to appreciate less than some other asset types.

Pistol · 12-04-2017, 04:45 PM

I can't see the serial number on the underside of the barrel. It could be the lighting, or would no serial # on barrell be normal for Banners? Does lack of barrel serial # indicate the barrel is a replacement ?

Bill_in_VA · 12-04-2017, 06:35 PM

Don’t hold me to it, Greg, but I think that particular ad dates to 1959.

4 Scale · 12-05-2017, 02:05 PM

Thanks Bill. This calculator

https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

estimates that $49.85 in 1959 equates to $424 today. Expressed as a yearly inflation rate that is roughly 3.8% a year.

Assuming the pistols sold in that ad were military P08s in average condition and original finish, applying various annual average appreciation rates to that $49.85 original cost:

5% per year =$ 845
6% per year =$1,460

The way you read this is "if the pistol went up an average of 5% per year from 1959 to 2017, it is worth $845 today".

So, from 1959 to now, based on the assumptions stated, my guess is that this hypothetical "average" pistol would today be worth at least $1,000, i.e. it increased in value roughly 5%-6% per year. Phrased differently this would seem to support the idea that Lugers appreciate at a couple percent a year above inflation.

Thanks for posting that ad, the only way to figure out appreciation rates is to know what they sold for at earlier dates.

11-24-2017, 10:53 PM	#21
4 Scale User Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 544 Thanks: 194 Thanked 489 Times in 251 Posts	A Luger that cost $200 in 1975 and is worth say $1,800 today has appreciated at an annual rate of about 5-6%. Inflation has averaged about 3.8% per year during that time. Over time stocks tend to be much better investments but are relatively more volatile, as anyone who was long in the market in 1928 or 2008 can attest. Bill if you can tell me the date of that ad for the $49.85 Luger, I'll take a guess at value today and compute an appreciation rate. I've played with Luger appreciation rates a few different ways, and my best guess is that over time they appreciate at a couple percent above inflation. That means IMO they are in fact a type of investment, albeit one that seems to appreciate less than some other asset types. Last edited by 4 Scale; 11-25-2017 at 05:53 PM. Reason: kant spel

12-04-2017, 06:35 PM	#23
Bill_in_VA User Join Date: Nov 2013 Location: Southwest Virginia Posts: 373 Thanks: 771 Thanked 554 Times in 198 Posts	Don’t hold me to it, Greg, but I think that particular ad dates to 1959. __________________ John 8:32 reive (riːv) vb (Military) (intr) dialect Scot and Northern English to go on a plundering raid [variant of reave] ˈreiver n e.g., " Some view the Border Reivers as loveable rogues."

12-04-2017, 04:45 PM	#22
Pistol User Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: TN Posts: 428 Thanks: 448 Thanked 220 Times in 99 Posts	I can't see the serial number on the underside of the barrel. It could be the lighting, or would no serial # on barrell be normal for Banners? Does lack of barrel serial # indicate the barrel is a replacement ?

12-05-2017, 02:05 PM	#24
4 Scale User Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 544 Thanks: 194 Thanked 489 Times in 251 Posts	Thanks Bill. This calculator https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm estimates that $49.85 in 1959 equates to $424 today. Expressed as a yearly inflation rate that is roughly 3.8% a year. Assuming the pistols sold in that ad were military P08s in average condition and original finish, applying various annual average appreciation rates to that $49.85 original cost: 5% per year =$ 845 6% per year =$1,460 The way you read this is "if the pistol went up an average of 5% per year from 1959 to 2017, it is worth $845 today". So, from 1959 to now, based on the assumptions stated, my guess is that this hypothetical "average" pistol would today be worth at least $1,000, i.e. it increased in value roughly 5%-6% per year. Phrased differently this would seem to support the idea that Lugers appreciate at a couple percent a year above inflation. Thanks for posting that ad, the only way to figure out appreciation rates is to know what they sold for at earlier dates.